Understanding the Global Carbon Budget
Discover what the Global Carbon Budget is, how it fits into the fight against climate change, and how business leaders can put it to use.
TL;DR
The Global Carbon Budget is an annual report that measures CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions versus how much the earth can absorb. This budget is crucial for:
Understanding whether the globe will meet the 1.5°C target by 2050, outlined by the Paris Agreement
What impact climate change will have on drought, water scarcity, weather patterns, human life, biodiversity, and more
Creating a source of truth for policy makers and as a record of what is happening.
Business leaders are at the forefront of making sure emissions can be reduced, avoided, and carbon removed so that the temperature threshold is not reached.
What is the Global Carbon Budget?
Like any budget, the Global Carbon Budget tracks expenditures versus a finite resource capacity. In this case, the expenditures are CO2 emissions, year over year, and the capacity is the 1.5°C target outlined by the Paris Agreement.
Since 2005, researchers have produced this budget, accounting for:
Inputs: annual CO2 emissions
Outputs: carbon sinks, like the ocean and land
Uncertainties: in both inputs and outputs to account for discrepancies and new findings
To avoid the worst effects of climate change, the carbon outputs must match the carbon inputs, thus creating an equilibrium.
The goal is to measure how much excess CO2 is in the atmosphere and how much time we have left before we use up our quota, AKA how much carbon the earth can absorb.
Who puts together the Global Carbon Budget?
The Global Carbon Budget is developed by more than 75 scientists from more than 50 research institutions, spread across 15 countries. It’s one of the most comprehensive and collaborative efforts to date to measure our collective progress, or lack thereof, and adheres to the most rigorous scientific standards.
See the full list of contributors for Global Carbon Budget 2020 here.
How was the Global Carbon Budget Created?
The Global Carbon Budget is an annual undertaking within the Global Carbon Project (GCP), which began in 2001 as a multinational partnership between:
The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP),
The International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP)
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and Diversitas.
Over the years, the name has changed first into the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP) and then into Future Earth but the work has remained the same and more expert contributors have joined.
How is it Updated?
Across the globe, groups like NASA are observing changes in how much CO2 is in the atmosphere, emissions from fossil fuels, the effects of deforestation, and how much carbon the land and oceans are reabsorbing.
Data sets and models include:
MODIS1 (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on the Terra and Aqua satellites
GFED (Global Fire Emissions Database)
CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach), calculating the carbon exchange on land surface
ODIAC (the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide), tracking surface fossil fuel emissions
And many more.
Why do we need a Global Carbon Budget?
The Global Carbon Budget gives the whole world a standard measure to track progress and to monitor where the current risk levels lie. It also gives direction for what steps need to be taken to mitigate climate change, should progress not be made on schedule.
One of the biggest perks of having a global carbon budget is that there is one number that captures the goal. As we cross different temperature thresholds, the impacts of climate change exponentially increase. The budget allows a collective understanding of the impact and the available solutions.
This graphic demonstrates the impact of 1.5°C of warming vs 2.0°C but it is worth noting that the globe doesn’t heat evenly. Many places, like India and Pakistan, have already surpassed these thresholds.
In sobering news, the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is growing less likely. Given the sheer scale of the inputs needed to calculate the true cost of climate change and create a standardized carbon budget, there has been uncertainty on exactly how much carbon emissions should be allowed, versus other GHG. But in the most integrated approach to date, the world will use up the remaining carbon budget by 2040, ten years earlier than planned. Even if we can meet net-zero goals, there’s only a 50% chance that we meet the 1.5°C target.
If we don’t meet these goals, we can expect, among other consequences:
61 million more people will be exposed to exceptional heatwaves
Up to 270 million more people will experience water scarcity
A massive extinction event, causing irreversible damage to our biodiversity
The carbon budget isn’t padded. There’s no slush fund to tap into when the temperature is reached. If it is, all we can do is mitigate the risks and cope with new realities.
But there is good news too.
The Global Carbon Budget 2020
In 2020, there was a 7% decline in emissions from 20192. If we can continue at this rate, we’ll reach global net-zero emissions by 2035. However, it’s worth saying that emissions did drop by 20% during global lockdowns as a result of COVID-19, a temporary boon.
Given the current trends, it seems more likely that we’ll exceed the 1.5°C goal but meet the 2.0°C cap, the higher end of temperature change noted in the Paris Agreement.
Where are we now on the 2021 Budget?
While Global Carbon Budget 2020 was only just released, we’re ahead of our budget in 2021 and not in a good way. We do know that 2020 shows lower emissions because of COVID and that trends are slowing. That doesn’t mean we’re in the clear or that all drops in emissions are due to long-term changes.
Next Steps
Our collective progress should give us momentum to continue innovating and focus on not just net-zero emissions but truly low-to-no emissions practices. If fighting climate change is a marathon, we’re on the second-to-last lap now. The finish line seems far away but it’s closer than we think so we have to put our heads down and grind for a while longer.
The role of sustainability business leaders should be that of a coach. Practice makes perfect and accountability is everything. This is the time to develop new strategies and to tighten up tried-and-true techniques, such as:
Establishing a regular audit of corporate emissions
Creating plans to reduce emissions everywhere possible
Invest in reputable carbon markets to offset emissions that can’t be avoided
The key to responsible corporate sustainability is understanding the impact of value chains and where emissions can be reduced, removed, and avoided.
Keep reading Carbon Markets to stay up to date on the latest news on global carbon markets.
MODIS for North American Carbon Program: The North American Carbon Program (NACP ) provides the scientific foundation to inform future policy decisions involving the carbon cycle, such as managing carbon sources and sinks through efficient and effective options to reduce emission and enhance carbon sinks. As per its Wikipedia entry : “The central objective of NACP is to measure and understand carbon stocks and sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) in North America and adjacent ocean regions.” It serves a major component within the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
Global Carbon Project (2020) Carbon budget and trends 2020. www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget] published on 11 December 2020